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Time to take aggressive action?

Source: The Philippine Star – Filipino Worldview | Author: Ambassador Roberto R. Romulo | Date: March 13, 2020

The World Health Organization yesterday declared the COVID-19 a pandemic, meaning that its spread is global and there is widespread local transmission. It signals that health authorities must now change focus from containment to mitigation. Much is unknown about the COVID-19, but it seems to have the capability to spread faster and be more virulent than the flu. The fatality rate of COVID-19 is currently at 3.4 percent, but as more tests are conducted, that rate will go down to what some say is around one percent. One death, of course, is one too many.

A kit, a kit, my kingdom for a (testing) kit!

Although China seems to have turned the corner on the disease, the rest of the world are just beginning to feel its severity. The Philippines has proven to be ill-prepared for this new disease. We are particularly vulnerable because we have a large number of fellow citizens working in places where risk to exposure is high.

The crucial element in containment is diagnostic testing especially considering that people infected with the virus may be infectious even without exhibiting any symptoms. DOH Secretary Duque has said that funding is not a problem, but rather the availability of testing kits. True, but like in the US this was compounded by delaying the onset of mass testing and by limiting it to those who have exhibited symptoms.

The other issue is that diagnostic testing is a two-step process requiring field testing results to be sent to accredited laboratories for confirmation. Thus, it takes anywhere from 24 to 48 hours turnaround for the results — crucial time lost. Previously, samples had to be sent to a laboratory in Melbourne. I understand that RITM now has that capability, but that means far away regions will have longer turnaround counting the transport time. Secretary Duque said four more regional centers would be opened soon. Those labs require sophisticated devices to provide definitive positive or negative results. I hope they have them or are allocated funds to acquire them. As more tests are conducted, the number of those identified as infected will rise dramatically. As in the US, the question being asked here is if the delay and paucity in testing has enabled the disease to gain a toehold in the country.

Although now is not the time for finger pointing, but rather for a concerted effort by all of society to mitigate its impact on the country, it would be instructive to learn from the experience of others in dealing with infectious disease — which seem to be the “new normal” — now and for the long term.

Taiwan model

Given its proximity to China and the magnitude of the flow of people and goods across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan was expected to be hit hard by the initial outbreak. But contrary to expectations, it has been able to contain the spread of the disease to manageable levels in contrast to others in the region, notably Japan, South Korea, Hongkong and Singapore.

Firstly, Taiwan has a specialized agency tasked with infectious disease prevention and control. The Center for Disease Control was established in 1999 and is responsible for formulating disease prevention and control policies, conducting research on pathogens, and implementing rapid response measures to emerging infectious diseases. Taiwan was, therefore, able to take pre-emptive measures — utilizing digital technology like Big Data and AI — as the disease was developing in Wuhan.

The closest equivalent we have is the Epidemiology Bureau in the DOH which has inadequate resources and limited mandate. Rep. Joey Salceda recently introduced a bill that would create a Philippine equivalent agency.

Our handling of the current crisis has shown the importance of having a specialized agency with the resources and authority to tackle infectious diseases on a sustained basis.

Secondly, Taiwan had in place the mechanism to coordinate all relevant government agencies to rapidly respond to such outbreak. The National Health Command Center (NHCC) is part of a disaster management center and acts as the operational command point for central, regional and local authorities. Under the NHCC, Taiwan’s CDC activated the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) to coordinate efforts by various ministries including transportation, economic affairs, labor, education and the Environmental Protection Agency to counteract emerging public health crisis. In the Philippines, I am surprised that the Office of Civil Defense is not at the center of our government’s effort to deal with what may turn out to be a public health disaster.

Although not as dramatic as an earthquake, a volcanic eruption or a super typhoon but just as deadly, this pandemic should be treated the same way we respond to disasters. In past situations, presidential leadership was crucial in delivering an effective response. All of us should, therefore, take this seriously – starting from the top!

To support government efforts on mitigating the impact of the disease, the National Resilience Council is scheduling a roundtable on COVID-19 to increase awareness of the status of its spread and mitigation efforts at national and local levels in the Philippines. The roundtable will respond to a growing number of questions regarding the policies and their implementation with respect of early detection, containment, mitigation, and their implications on socio-economic stability and security; highlight potential interventions and solutions based on leading global practice; identify lessons being learned to inform future actions to address similar hazards; and emphasize the need for crisis management and leadership, and organizational capacity for national resilience. Key government officials and  local and foreign experts will be invited to participate.

Postponement of the Roundtable on digital agriculture

The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) has made the sensible decision to postpone its meeting in Manila out of concern for the participants given that the disease is not yet under control and in fact, now declared as a pandemic. Unfortunately, that means the CPR Foundation co-sponsored Roundtable on digital agriculture, which was part of a series of events during the meeting, will have to be postponed as well. We will announce the new date once it is confirmed. The event and the subject have drawn considerable support, most specially from DA Secretary William Dar.

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UNDRR urges disaster management agencies to prioritize biological hazards

Source: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction | Author: Denis McClean | Date: March 12, 2020

GENEVA, 12 March, 2020 – The UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, Mami Mizutori, today acknowledged WHO’s declaration of a pandemic in relation to the global outbreak of the COVID19 virus which has claimed over 4,000 lives to date.

Ms. Mizutori who also heads the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), urged national disaster management agencies to continue with the development of their preparedness and response capacities to include health emergencies as a top priority, alongside earthquakes, floods, storms and other natural hazards.

“Events such as the COVID19 pandemic, Ebola epidemics and Zika virus outbreaks underline how important it is to break down the silos in disaster prevention and management. We need to recognize the multiple ways in which such outbreaks can have a ripple effect across sectors of society and lead to the breakdown of systems that we take for granted, including health care, the provision of education, global supply chains, travel, trade and financial services.

“It is understandable that there is a strong disaster management focus on natural hazards. They are visible, and affect over 100 million people every year, but this machinery must also be ready for deployment in public health emergencies when the trigger is a virus like COVID19.

“This is a red-letter year for disaster risk reduction. UN Member States adopted the global plan to reduce disaster losses, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction on 18 March 2015 and committed to have national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction in place by this year. It is essential now that these strategies are revisited to ensure that they prioritize the management of biological hazards and resilient health systems.

“The Sendai Framework is a valuable instrument for ensuring better health outcomes in disasters. It emphasizes the need for resilient health systems and the integration of disaster risk management into health care provision at all levels.

“Its full implementation will help break down any silos that exist between disaster managers and health workers. It will also help to shift the focus from disaster response and management to preparedness, surveillance and disaster risk management in the health context.”

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Taal Volcano 2020 Eruption Update

Taal Volcano 2020 Eruption Impact on Air Quality Part I: Satellite Retrievals and Ground-based, Vertically-resolved Measurements

Original post from Manila Observatory:
https://www.facebook.com/notes/manila-observatory/taal-volcano-2020-eruption-impact-on-air-quality-part-i-satellite-retrievals-and/3089675011062794/

Summary (as of 13 January 2020):

  1. Emissions from Taal Volcano rapidly spread northward, hitting major population centers within an hour of the initial eruption.
  2. High-altitude winds were largely responsible for transporting volcanic emissions northward. HSRL measurements from Manila Observatory show that most of the pollution was transported above 12 km.
  3. Comparison of integrated aerosol optical depth over the Manila Observatory before, during, and after the ashfall shows current conditions are back to typical range.
  4. Satellite retrievals show reduced emissions and plume dispersion across Luzon early morning, 13 January 2020.

At around 3:00 p.m. (0700Z) 12 January 2020, Taal Volcano in Batangas erupted, releasing large amounts of particles and gases into our atmosphere. In the following hours, the volcano continued to spew ash as the initial plume was transported northward by prevailing winds, as shown in Figure 1 . Even from space, the transport of the emissions could clearly be seen moving quickly, reaching Metro Manila between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. (0800-0900Z) shown in Figure 2 , and spreading past Batanes by 11:00 p.m. (1500Z).

It is well-known that volcanic eruptions threaten nearby areas through lava or lahar, but less-known are the impacts of such eruptions on our air quality. Volcanic ash and dust are emitted in the eruptions and dispersed throughout our atmosphere. These are types of natural aerosols, which are solid particulates or liquid droplets suspended in the air. Some aerosols are fine enough to be inhaled and have negative effects on human health. Hazardous gases such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and greenhouse gases (GHG) are also released [2].The Taal ashfall particles are noticeably quite different than the Pinatubo ashfall in terms of size, shape, texture. They are larger, more uncrystallized (amorphous), and more rough when pulverized. The presence and abundance of water in the Taal region has allowed magma to cool and solidify much faster than in a terrestrial eruption, much like Pinatubo’s. Nonetheless, volcanic ash, of whichever type or source, is a conglomeration of small particles of jagged glass, rocks, minerals that is hazardous to us when ingested through the respiratory system.

Most of the pollutants from the Taal eruption on 12 January were transported at high altitudes. A steam-and-ash plume was detected as high as 16.5 km above ground level by Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center [3]. Termed a phreatic eruption, the event was driven by building pressure from steam, heated by magma [4]. An injection with considerable vertical exit velocity and particle buoyancy associated with the high temperatures of volcanic emissions transported associated particles and gases towards higher altitudes [5]. Although low-altitude winds were stagnant during the time of eruption, the rapid vertical transport of volcanic emissions allowed for horizontal transport by high-altitude winds northward into high population areas ( Figures 1, 3 ), reaching as far as the North Luzon coast by 8:00 p.m. that night (1200Z).

Ashfall has been reported in many locations, including areas in Batangas, Tagaytay, Laguna, Cavite, Bulacan, and Metro Manila. PHIVOLCS has issued an ashfall advisory for CALABARZON, Metro Manila, and Central Luzon [6]. The general public is advised to stay indoors, especially the elderly, children, and people with respiratory problems such as asthma. The Department of Health (DOH) has warned the public on the dangers of ashfall which include bronchitis-like illness, coughing, and nose-and-throat irritation [7]. They suggest that N95 grade face masks should be used when possible, especially by those who are exposed to the ashfall, and motorists should drive with extreme caution due to low visibility and slippery roads.

Instruments at the Manila Observatory (location relative to Taal shown in Figures 2 and 3 ) support the reports of ashfall reaching the Metro late last night, and can help to assess current conditions as well.

The High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) measures how much light from a laser is reflected back towards the ground (called the backscatter). This can be used to determine the presence of clouds and aerosols, with higher backscatter generally meaning a higher concentration of aerosols (depending on the shape and radius of the aerosols as well). Figure 4 shows low backscatter in the time period before the eruption (the blue color on the left of the graph, around 2:30 p.m. local time; 0630Z). Rapidly, within an hour after the eruption starting from 4:00 p.m. (0800Z), larger backscatter values (i.e. higher amounts of aerosols) are observed at high altitudes around 10- 12 km as the polluted air mass was transported from Taal to Metro Manila. The top of the ash plume can not be measured by the HSRL which loses signal above 12 km due to high concentration of the ash. This supports the hypothesis of high-altitude transport as the main mechanism behind the rapid spread of Taal’s emissions. As the evening went on, the air mass began to descend until it reached the ground at 6:00 p.m. (1000Z), the same time that ashfall in Metro Manila was reported. The ash plume is still present after 13:00Z however the HSRL becomes blocked by water clouds starting near 1300Z (9:00 pm).

Aerosol optical depth or AOD is a measure of how much sunlight is prevented from reaching the ground due to aerosols and a marker of aerosol concentration. A higher AOD means that conditions are hazier. Figure 5 shows that total AOD from surface to 10km (which can be read as the AOD value at the top-most altitude) before the ashfall (8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., 12 January 2020; 0000Z-0400Z) was around 0.36, which is somewhat polluted but typical for Metro Manila. Over a four-hour period during the peak of the ashfall in Quezon City (8:00 p.m. to 12:00 a.m., 12 January 2020; 1200Z-1600Z), AOD reached over four times that value (~1.66), signifying extremely hazy conditions.

More recent measurements (8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., 13 January 2020; 0000Z-0400Z) show that AOD values have returned to normal (~0.34) over the Manila Observatory. Based on the latest satellite images, emissions from the volcano have decreased and prevailing winds are advecting residual emissions in the northeast direction (Figure 6).

As Taal Volcano continues to be at Alert Level 4 (hazardous eruption imminent), people in affected locations are advised to take necessary precautions and stay calm. In the days to come, the Manila Observatory will continue to monitor atmospheric conditions and air quality levels in order to better assess the level of danger posed to the general public.

By Gabrielle Frances Leung¹, Miguel Ricardo Hilario¹, Grace Betito¹, Paola Angela Bañaga¹, Xzann Gary Vincent Topacio¹, Zenn Marie Cainglet¹ ³, Shane Marie Visaga² ³, Imee Delos Reyes¹ ³, Lyndon Mark Olaguera² ³, Julie Mae Dado² ³, Faye Cruz²,
Joel Maquiling³, Maria Obiminda Cambaliza¹ ³, James Bernard Simpas¹ ³, Gemma Teresa Narisma² ³, Robert Holz⁴, Ralph Kuehn⁴, and Edwin Eloranta⁴
¹ Air Quality Dynamics Laboratory, Manila Observatory, Philippines ; ² Regional Climate Systems Laboratory, Manila Observatory, Philippines; ³ Department of Physics, Ateneo de Manila University, Philippines; ⁴ Space Sciences Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madiscon, Wisconsin, USA

Acknowledgments: We acknowledge the use of AHI data from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), imagery from the University of Wisconsin Madison Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) and U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) as part of the NASA CAMP2Ex ( Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), and the NASA Worldview application team as part of the NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). We also acknowledge that the University of Wisconsin High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) which is deployed at the Manila Observatory to support CAMP2Ex, and Dr. Jeffrey Reid of NRL for his invaluable comments and input.

References[1] Cloud Top Height Determination From 10.7 um Imagery, [online] Available from: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/wmovl/vrl/tutorials/advimgry/cldtop.htm (Accessed 13 January 2020).[2] How Volcanoes Influence Climate | UCAR Center for Science Education, [online] Available from: https://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate (Accessed 13 January 2020).[3] Taal volcano (Luzon, Philippines) activity update: Significant eruption, first in 43 years, Alert Level raised to 4, [online] Available from: https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/taal/news/95834/Taal-volcano-Luzon-Philippines-activity-update-Significant-eruption-first-in-43-years-Alert-Level-ra.html (Accessed 13 January 2020).[4] Garcia, M.A. What is a phraetic eruption?, GMA News [online]. Available from: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/scitech/science/721987/what-is-a-phreatic-eruption/story/ (Accessed 13 January 2020).[5] Eckhardt, S., Prata, A. J., Seibert, P., Stebel, K. and Stohl, A.: Estimation of the vertical prole of sulfur dioxide injection into the atmosphere by a volcanic eruption using satellite column measurements and inverse transport modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2008. [6] DOST-PHIVOLCS: Volcano Bulletin, [online] Available from: https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/index.php/volcano-hazard/volcano-bulletins3 (Accessed 13 January 2020).[7] Viray, P. L.: DOH cautions public on health effects of Taal ashfall, philstar.com [online] Available from: https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/01/12/1984267/doh-cautions-public-health-effects-taal-ashfall (Accessed 13 January 2020).

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Tackling disaster resiliency for businesses

On November 21, National Resilience Council (NRC) President Antonia Yulo Loyzaga and SM Prime and NRC Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Consultant VADM Alexander Pama appeared on CNN Philippines’ On the Record to discuss how businesses can prepare for and bounce forward from disasters.

Video courtesy of CNN Philippines

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Young Leaders for Resilience

The National Resilience Council (NRC) believes that young people have the capacity and drive to help in achieving disaster and climate resilience.

As the lead implementing partner of ARISE Philippines, the NRC created the Young Leaders for Resilience Program (YLRP) to encourage youth engagement in co-creating solutions that address the resilience challenges of local government units (LGUs) in the Philippines.

To come up with innovative solutions targeting specific LGU risks, the YLRP uses IBM’s Design Thinking framework, an approach IBM defines as “helping us get things done in a way that enables speed, constantly delivers new value, and ensures minimal risk.”

IBM Philippines, Asia Pacific College, and National University, with support from NRC and ARISE Philippines, then conducted the IBM Enterprise Design Thinking Workshop (EDTW) for students of academic institutions within NRC’s partner LGUs. Below are photos from the EDTWs:

Bataan Province

Cagayan de Oro City

Iloilo City

Iriga City

Muntinlupa City

Naga City

Ormoc City

Zamboanga City

With help from the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Offices and the City Planning and Development Offices, the students conducted research to develop and refine their proposals.

The students presented their proposals at the local level, where a top-performing team from each of the 8 LGUs were selected to pitch their ideas at the national level during the November 12 Top Leaders Forum in Pasay City:

  • Bataan Peninsula State University (Bataan Province)
  • Xavier University – Ateneo de Cagayan de Oro (Cagayan de Oro City)
  • PHINMA University of Iloilo (Iloilo City)
  • Camarines Sur Polytechnic Colleges (Iriga City)
  • Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Muntinlupa (Muntinlupa City)
  • Bicol State College of Applied Sciences and Technology (Naga City)
  • Visayas State University (Ormoc City)
  • Ateneo de Zamboanga University (Zamboanga City)

The winning teams per LGU defended their proposals before an esteemed panel of judges in a pre-selection process and were given initial scores.

The students then had the opportunity to showcase their ideas through exhibits at the 2019 Top Leaders Forum (TLF), and made their final pitch in the afternoon. The top three teams and their winning proposals were:

  • 1st place – Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Muntinlupa (Muntinlupa City), Seismo-Power Terminator
  • 2nd place – Xavier University – Ateneo de Cagayan de Oro (Cagayan de Oro City), Project ORO
  • 3rd place – Camarines Sur Polytechnic Colleges (Iriga City), Tri-button Emergency Box

2019 TLF photos are courtesy of SM

To learn more about the Young Leaders for Resilience Program, check out the YLRP flyer on NRC’s Resources Page.

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WATCH: 8th Top Leaders Forum

On November 12, ARISE Philippines, SM Prime, and the National Resilience Council (NRC) held the 8th Top Leaders Forum at the SMX Convention Center in Pasay City.

With the theme “From Risk to Resilience: Forging Pathways and Milestones”, the TLF was an opportunity to showcase the work of various sectors in achieving a disaster and climate resilient Philippines. Specifically, it highlighted:

  • Private sector engagement with small and medium enterprises
  • NRC’s partner local governments’ progress on the localized resilience scorecard
  • NRC’s Adopt-A-City program
  • Launch of the Young Leaders for Resilience Program
  • Partnership with Coastal Cities at Risk in the Philippines, Zuellig Family Foundation, and Manila Observatory in the conceptualization of the Resilient Barangay Program
Video courtesy of CNN Philippines
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NRC talks disaster resilience on ANC

In an interview with ANC, National Resilience Council (NRC) and SM Prime Consultant for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience, Vice Admiral Alexander Pama, talked about how NRC is bringing together various sectors to address challenges in disaster and climate resilience.

See the full interview below:

Video courtesy of ABS-CBN News Channel (ANC).
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Adopt-A-City Program featured on Pinoy Panalo Ka

NRC Executive Director Malu Erni with Pinoy Panalo Ka Host Mare Yao.

On July 5, National Resilience Council (NRC) Executive Director Malu Erni sat down with Pinoy Panalo Ka Host Mare Yao to talk about the ADOPT-A-CITY Program. The program is a city-specific partnership model that ensures direct involvement from the private sector, and forges strengthened collaborations between and among various sectors. Ms. Erni also emphasized how this latest initiative would play a critical role in implementing NRC’s Resilient LGU Program.

The full interview can be viewed below or on Pinoy Panalo Ka’s official Facebook.

(Ep 18) Pinoy, Panalo Ka!

Panoorin ang Pinoy, Panalo Ka!

Posted by Pinoy Panalo Ka on Sunday, July 21, 2019
Adopt-A-City Program feature starts on the 27th minute. Video courtesy of Pinoy Panalo Ka.
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NRC presents resilience work at LCF CSR Expo

Last July 4, National Resilience Council (NRC) Executive Director Marilou Erni showcased NRC’s work in a session on Disaster Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience during the 18th League of Corporate Foundations’ (LCF) Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Expo at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City. With the theme “Toward Collective Impact: Collaborations that Work!”, the two-day LCF CSR Expo gathered different sectors to discuss opportunities for impactful collaborations, learn from each other about best CSR practices and to promote a common framework for addressing pressing national issues and for achieving sustainable development.

Ms. Erni began her presentation with the latest World Risk Index. The Index reported that the Philippines remained third most at risk in the world—after Vanuatu and Tonga—and that the country was rated very high in terms of vulnerability, and high on exposure, susceptibility and lack of coping capacities. While showing a 2019 Global Assessment Report (GAR) infographic, she added that there is a need for a shift from disaster response to risk prevention through risk-informed systems-based approaches and decision making.

Ms. Marilou Erni represented NRC at the 18th LCF CSR Expo in Pasay City.

NRC has always emphasized that the complex and dynamic nature of risk, and the Philippines’ unique patterns of development, required trans-disciplinary approaches that needed the active participation of different sectors and communities themselves. Through a whole-of-society effort, this would bridge the critical gaps between science, policy and practice. Thus, ARISE Philippines and the NRC are working together to advance science and technology-based public-private partnerships in the attainment of the shared goals of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Climate Agreement and the New Urban Agenda.

Ms. Erni went on to discuss NRC’s Resilient LGU Program, a three-year pathway that uniquely integrates leadership and governance and science and technology, and builds the internal capacities of local government units for them to develop and manage their own resilience initiatives. With the help of other sectors and by anchoring on international and national frameworks, NRC also developed its Resilient Local Government Systems Scorecard, a guide with over 90 indicators organized according to five cross-cutting pillars: Leadership and Governance, Human Development, Local Economy, Infrastructure and Environment.

Ms. Erni also talked about the ADOPT-A-CITY Program, NRC’s latest innovation which aimed to strengthen public-private partnerships and encourage direct private sector investment in local disaster risk reduction and long-term resilience efforts. The city-specific partnership model was launched last June 17 through a signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between SM Prime and Cagayan de Oro City. Addressing the participants, she encouraged the members of LCF to join the call for resilience work, highlighting SM Prime Executive Committee Chair and NRC Co-Chair for Private Sector Mr. Hans Sy’s message that “Disaster Risk Reduction makes good business sense.”

Speakers were given recognition after the session on Disaster Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience.

“We have to transform our frame of mind, our thinking, and our development model, to make us less exposed and vulnerable to climate change and disasters,” shared Ms. Erni, quoting NRC Convenor Amb. Roberto Romulo. “While resilience is our goal, transformation in terms of evidence-informed leadership, knowledge, competencies and skills is critical to achieving it. This type of transformative leadership must be achieved through multi-stakeholder partnerships at both national and local levels.”

Photos by NRC.